In the lead-up to all his previous three World Cross Country titles, Paul Tergat lost a couple of races. He has followed the same pattern again in 1998, losing twice to Paul Koech before scoring handsome wins in Mombasa and the Cinque Mulini. Tergat appears to have peaked again just at the right time. At his best, it is hard to see how he can be beaten. Not only does he possess the strength of a world 10,000 record holder, Tergat also can produce an excellent finishing kick, as demonstrated in his duel last year with Salah Hissou. It will be a surprise if the Kenyan does not match the feat of John Ngugi and win a fourth successive title.

Paul Koech beat Tergat in both the Kenyan Armed Forces and Kenyan Championships, before Tergat made it 2-1 this year in Mombasa. Koech, fourth in the last two World Cross Country Championships, appears to be Tergat’s strongest challenger. In both Cape Town 1996 and Turin last year that role was played by Morocco’s Salah Hissou. This season Hissou has not raced because of a tendon injury. The news from the host camp is that he will definitely start, but Hissou will need to run his best race to withstand the Kenyan challenge.

A sentimental favourite would have been Khalid Skah, who in 1991 became the last non-Kenyan to win this title. Unfortunately this is not to be as Skah has withdrawn from the Moroccan line-up due to injury.

If he can stay in touch with the leaders, everyone will need to watch out for another Moroccan, Khalid Boulami. A medallist in Gothenburg, Atlanta and Athens, Boulami has one of the fastest sprint finishes in long distance running. He could be a key player in what promises to be a fascinating struggle between Keyna and Morocco for team honours.

Prediction: 1, Tergat; 2, Koech; 3, Hissou. Team: Kenya

Men’s Short Race

The race is loaded with world-class steeplechasers and track stars not often seen racing over the country. One of these is Daniel Komen. Few would expect him not to go one better than his junior silver of four years ago. The Kenyan has been the world’s top male athlete this year with two world records indoors and another sub-8 minute 2 mile run in Sydney. At last year’s Grand Prix Final however, his fifth place showed that even Komen has his limits. If he fails, the main benificiary could well be his former pacemaker, John Kosgei, who won the Kenyan short course title last month.

Morocco’s biggest stars go in the long race, but Salah El Ghazi will be an interesting starter. The 22 year-old was second only to Hicham El Guerrouj on the Moroccan 1500m list last year and has scored some fast wins indoors this winter.

Another interesting entry is that of Reyes Estevez, the rapidly improving Spaniard who surprised everyone in Athens by pipping Noureddine Morceli for the 1500m bronze. He leads a powerful and experienced Spanish squad including the trio who were second, third and fourth in that dramatic European indoor 3000m final earlier in the month.

Prediction: 1, Komen; 2, J Kosgei; 3, Pancorbo. Team: Spain

Junior Men’s Race

Ethiopia’s Million Wolde, runner-up in 1997, has a wonderful opportunity to dent the Kenyan domination. He was, however, the favourite this time last year before losing out to Elijah Korir. The best Kenyan on the day could be Richard Limo, the 17 year-old who beat some better-known names to win at both the Kenyan Championships and the Kenyan Trial.

The Somali-born Swede Mustafa Mohammed, third in last year’s European, might challenge for Europe’s first individual medal at this event since 1984.

Prediction: 1, Limo; 2, Cherono; 3 Wolde. Team: Kenya

Women’s Long Race

The 1997 Champion Tulu is absent, but the five women who followed her in Turin are in this year’s race. The favourite, however, will be a woman who avoided cross-country racing until her sensational breakthrough this season: Jackline Maranga. The Kenyan has great speed; she almost outkicked World 1500m Champion Carla Sacramento in the Grand Prix Final mile last year. Urged on by her husband Thomas Nyariki she has made a great transition to the longer distances with three cross challenge wins and a Kenyan title in the past two months.

Maranga’s better-known compatriot Sally Barsosio was only fifth in her national championship but the longer race distance in Marrakech may suit the woman who was able to produce a 4:40 mile at the end of her Athens 10,000 win.

Britain’s Paula Radcliffe and Spain’s Julian Vaquero both seem to be running better than they were last year when they placed second and fourth. They were separated in 1997 by Ethiopia’s Gete Wami, but the top Ethiopian this year seems to be Cross Challenge leader and Cinque Mulini winner Merima Denboba.

Finally, it will be fascinating to see how Sonia O’Sullivan performs. Her sequence of victories in Oceania this year have indicated that the Irishwoman might just have recaptured her brilliant 94/95 form.

Prediction: 1, Barsosio; 2, Vaquero; 3, Radcliffe. Team: Kenya

Women’s Short Race

If the Moroccan men do not win, then Zohra Ouaziz will have the chance to make amends for the home crowd by becoming the inaugural world champion in this event. Victory in the French Championships by 74 seconds from an in-form Blandine Bitzner-Ducret suggests that Ouaziz is running even better now than when she won the 1995 World 5000m bronze. Another world bronze winner, Anita Weyermann, showed she could race over the country at Diekirch but was well beaten in San Vittore Olona.

One who is experienced at both track and country is the increasingly confident Carla Sacramento. The World 1500m Champion has raced in these championships five times before and has already won the European Clubs title this season. The short course event would appear to be an ideal platform for a runner like the Portuguese miler.

Kenya are represented by some brilliant juniors, including last year’s junior winner Rose Koskei. We will have to wait until after the long race to see if Radcliffe or O’Sullivan decide to start.

Prediction: 1, Ouaziz; 2, Agui; 3, Sacramento. Team: Kenya

Junior Women’s Race

If a Kenyan were to win this, the first event, it would be her country’s 60th gold of these championships compared with 24 by the next most successful nation, Ethiopia. Like Million Wolde in the junior men’s race, Priscah Jepleting will be expected to win that medal by going one better than her silver last year. However, she was only third in the Kenyan nationals which were won by Agnes Kiprop.

Japan have a strong and experienced squad headed by Emiko Kojima, seventh last year. Five places later then came Rene Kalmer, the South African who has improved dramatically this winter to clock a sensational 4:09.56 1500m and win both her national trial races. Some regard her as her country’s best prospect since Zola Budd. Can she win her country’s first ever World Cross Country medal, not including Budd’s two wins in the 1980s for England?